I could have never expected, and I cannot explain such a terrible disaster.
update 7.30PM: I was in Bolzano this afternoon. When I left the city, the exit polls said that the Partito Democratico was by far the first party and the centre-left coalition was expected to win easily. When I got off the train the centre-right coalition was leading the polls. Now the M5S is the first party and none of the coalitions seems to have a stable majority.
update 7.45PM: spectacular how the centre-left managed to find a way not only not to dominate the elections as it was expected, but even to loose them
update 9.45PM: turns out I did actual expected these results. In fact, I just found out that in October I made a bet with my friends. Among those betting on Bersani, Berlusconi, and Monti, my forecast for the outcome of these elections was ‘total mess, complete disaster, no clear winner’. Turns out, I was right. I know, I am pretty good. That’s why I have a blog.
update 1.45AM: the situation looks depressing. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day on the markets with uncontrolled speculation and lot of fun with the spread.